Studies in Cement

At the weekly builders' meeting in our office yesterday, there seemed to be a lot of moaning and groaning, in the grown men and women style of groaning. I asked The Mister what was causing such angst, and his reply was the lack of concrete. In pressing for details, it became obvious that I was pretty ill-informed about the subject; and I always figure that if I am ignorant about a topic, there are probably one or two other folks in the same boat. So I'll pass on what I learned, with apologies to those who are quite familiar with the construction process.

The first revelation to me is that cement and concrete are NOT interchangeable terms. I have always used them (improperly, it turns out) in the same context, i.e. "the #1 Son scraped his knees on the cement sidewalk when he fell off his bike." The Mister informed me that a cement sidewalk would never survive a rain; it would just wash away like talcum powder. He then reminded me of our annual experiences of building "houses" (a small 2 room structure with no electricity, plumbing or drywall) in Mexico for the very needy; when we mix the concrete for the slab, we use a mixture of sifted sand/dirt, water, and cement - those packages of gray powdery granules that you dread if you are the one stirring the "soup" with a hoe because it thickens the mixture. Ah, I say, it all becomes clear; but isn't cement just crushed rock? Well, yes, but it's a special kind of rock, made from limestone, which is mined and then has to be cooked in giant kilns. The two main mines in Arizona are outside of Tucson, and near Cottonwood. And, of course, they have limited capacity. So why the shortage of this essential commodity?

Demand, says The Mister. We have more housing starts in Arizona than we have ever had in our history. That requires foundation slabs, curbs and gutters, to say nothing of swimming pools. And the building demand has been high across the country. And now there is hurricane damage rebuilding to consider. The overseas demand is also increasing, as China in particular explodes with building growth. Our domestic facilities have never been able to fully supply our domestic needs, and over 25% of our cement was imported last year. Most of that comes from Canada, but the other was shipped in from Thailand, Venezuela, China, Greece, and Colombia - through various ports, like New Orleans. Now our imports will be hampered because of the storm damage to the ports. Shortages are already being reported in 32 states and the District of Columbia; with the disruption to ocean, barge and rail transport coupled with power outages to the cement plants due to Hurricane Katrina, the supply is likely to grow tighter.

The builders who meet in our office have been feeling this squeeze for some time now. No concrete was being delivered on Saturdays all through the summer. Now it is not being delivered on Fridays, either, and even some delivieries during the week are short of the requested quantity. It pushes all the timelines back (as in Highland Groves), and makes everyone a little bit stressed.

So, what's the forecast? The Mister has no clue, so I don't, either. But there are a couple of facts that I found in my research that offer me a glimmer of hope. First, the demand for cement decreases during the winter months for our northern neighbors who can't pour concrete in freezing weather. I grew up in freezing weather, and there isn't a lot you CAN do in those temperatures, but I digress; the point is that this will ease the shortage for those southern states, like Arizona. Second, Mexico has more cement capacity than they need, and this seems like a simple solution - get it from Mexico. The only roadblock (pun intended) is a small (not!) bureaucratic holdup. In 1990, a group of U.S. producers complained that the Mexican firm Cemex was selling cement for less in the U.S. than in its home market. So the Commerce Department imposed an "antidumping duty" on cement from Mexico. The duty began at 80% and has been adjusted over the years, and it is currently at 55%; but it obviously prevents any Mexican cement from easing our shortage. So I can hope that the duty will be suspended in light of the circumstances, although we all know that undoing a bureaucratic rule is 100 times more difficult than implementing it. Still, it seems warranted, and there are folks pushing for this, so you never know.

In the meantime, we will continue to plug along and work together with the cement that is available. Highland Groves still awaits curbs and gutters; Panda Express has begun construction in Lakeview Village, as has Nitti Construction on the shops adjoining Albertson's and Di Ricci's. These are scheduled to be completed by February. The veterinarian going in on the south side of Lakeview Village is facing a different type of delay due to the demands on the Town of Gilbert's Design Review Board. The DRB has months' worth of backlog of designs to review.

Yep, it's true; it's taking longer.