Gloom and Doom

I'm feeling a little gloomy this morning, and wondering why. Perhaps it's the cloud cover. Being married to a Gilbert farmer for 27 years might have that effect; he used to get pretty low when the clouds rolled in, especially if we had a cotton crop in that was getting ready to be picked. Rain stains the cotton and reduces its value. That's depressing to a farmer.

Or maybe it's because of my daily journey through the news; let's see, maybe I can summarize what I've seen this morning.

On the national scene, according to the Wall Street Journal, the legal case against KPMG (one of the large CPA firms) by the Justice Department is running into trouble as a memo from the IRS has surfaced revealing that there was some confusion in the IRS about whether the tax shelters KPMG was promoting needed to be registered (which is the backbone of the charge against them). But it looks as though the 16 KPMG partners that got thrown under the bus will remain there; the firm is refusing to pay for their legal counsel. Ouch.

In local politics, it appears that there are clandestine donors supporting veiled organizations whose sole purpose is to attack the candidates for governor. There's also an article seeking volunteers to serve on some of Gilbert's vacant advisory boards. Gee, I wonder why folks might be deterred from volunteering their time for the common good?

On a topic even closer to home (no pun intended), there are five, (count them, five!) articles on the demise of the housing market. Experts are stunned, stunned! at how rapidly the housing boom has gone bust. Prices are down and homes are selling slower (it's just those pesky median prices that aren't quite fitting the profile of doom), and the reporters are panicked (but not the real estate agents).

"Prices slide in the north, but surge in the south", says the headline. Ominous, unless you read the article and discover that they are talking about Scottsdale, where in the north the median price has slipped an entire ONE percent from a year ago to a measly $661,000. Good grief.

In the southeast valley, including Gilbert, sales as well as median price has dropped. The article includes this paragraph:

• Gilbert: Sales fell to 355 from 665, and the median price dropped to $320,000, the lowest in a year. It was $309,950 in August 2005.

Is it just me, or does that actually say that the median price of a Gilbert home is $10,050 MORE this August than last, remembering that last August was in the throes of the buying frenzy that could never be sustained? Perhaps it's a typo. It certainly doesn't add to the dark feeling the article is intended to invoke.

At least this article admits that comparing current numbers to last year's numbers isn't really helpful:

Last year isn't a perfect comparison because of the investor-buyer frenzy that has left the housing market with a hangover this year, so tracking the home building and sales month to month has become a better gauge. Single-family housing permits across metropolitan Phoenix dropped steadily from May to July.

Last year isn't a perfect comparison; last year is a terrible comparison, from an economic standpoint. And using the word "hangover" with all its perjorative connotation is so much sexier than using a word or phrase that actually describes what's happening, like "correction" or "return to sound economical principles."

There is some good news out there. Gas prices are falling, and the stock market is approaching an all-time high. Morrison Ranch is still coveted by builders that want to get into our community. All of that should cheer me up.

I guess there's just one article that trumps the rest, overshadowing all:

Krispy Kreme's future in Valley unclear

Franchisee's bankruptcy leaves stores empty

That says it all. See you later. I'm going to Dunkin' Donuts.